The three miracles of the European Constitution
However it may look in legal terms, the draft European Constitution is not just another treaty: it is a Revolution. It spells the transition from a Europe of treaties to a Europe based on a Constitution, or from a Europe of governments to a citizens’ Europe.
True, this text is far from being as complete as the American Constitution signed in Philadelphia, which remains in force two centuries later. It does not mark the end of the adventure, but a new development: the cocoon is turning into a butterfly.
The final success of this constitutional process will require no less than three political miracles. That idea might raise some eyebrows and even the greatest optimists might find it hard to believe had two of those three miracles not already happened.
The first is the consensus reached within the European Convention. All the political parties of all the large national parties of all the European states – with the sole exception of the British Conservatives – reached agreement, not on a lower common denominator but on an ambitious political model, combining the best of federalism with a modern confederation in order to create an effective and democratic European power.
Second miracle: the governments finally agreed this text, which gives them a new concerted power: the French President, the German Chancellor, the Prime Minister of Her Most Gracious Majesty, will soon have at their side a President of the Commission who, through the European Parliament, will be elected by the 450 million citizens of Europe. As Michel Barnier joked, that result was as improbable as turkeys voting for Christmas. It happened on 18 June.
The third miracle will prove the most difficult one: how to persuade public opinion in the 25 countries to endorse the agreement given by their respective governments. Some ten referendums on ratification have already been announced. Assuming the average likelihood of any one country voting ‘yes’ to be 70% – a very optimistic hypothesis – a simple calculation shows that the probability of all ten countries voting ‘yes’ would remain less than …1%!
True, politics are not a matter of arithmetic. But it will all depend on whether the governments concerned can ensure that the real European issue takes precedence over the national political debate. On the continent, for instance, two out of three citizens are in favour of the European adventure, while the latest elections showed that more than one out of two were dissatisfied with their current government.
Alain Lamassoure, 21 June 2004