Afghanistan: the real issues lie elsewhere
A ‘just war’: that was the unanimous feeling of the international community during the military intervention in Afghanistan following the 9/11 massacre, a feeling that was further strengthened after the far more controversial invasion of Iraq by the US-British coalition forces.
Seven years down the line, the positive spin that the general public and political observers put on the operation is, unfortunately, hard to understand. Although the presidential elections were conducted properly and voter turnout was relatively high, the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar remain unknown. Afghanistan is no longer a base for al-Qaeda, but the group has spread widely throughout the Muslim world, from Indonesia to the Maghreb, and it has found a new, unexpected theatre of operations in Iraq. The Taliban are back in an increasing number of provinces, and, despite the courage of the British, Canadian and French troops, the fighting spirit of many contingents of the international force has become inversely proportional to that of their opponents. The poppy, which had been eradicated, is blooming again and now accounts for 90% of Afghan exports (approximately $3.4 billion) and a similar proportion of the heroin consumed in Europe. Held in contempt by the people, the ‘warlords’ continue to control their respective strongholds, and although women have gained the right to vote, there are many who go to the polling booth wearing the traditional burqa. The return on the $32 billion spent by the international community in Afghanistan over the past seven years – three times the country’s annual GDP! – is as disappointing in terms of military results as it is in terms of economic development.
However, this is no longer the main issue. It is becoming increasingly clear that Afghanistan is nothing more than a secondary theatre. The choice between war and peace in this unfortunate, virtually lawless country is not being made in Kabul but in the neighbouring countries, starting with Pakistan: Islamabad cannot bear the thought of an Afghan power that is politically close to India, its traditional enemy. What is now happening is that Pakistan is, in turn, being seriously undermined by its own local Taliban movements, against which the Pakistani Army is currently engaged in open war in the northwest of the country, a region that the central government has never really controlled. The destabilisation of Pakistan, a country with a five times bigger population and a key player both in the Muslim world and on the Asian continent – and a nuclear power to boot – would have far more serious consequences than anything that might happen in Afghanistan. Top priority should therefore be given to ensuring the stability of Pakistan, which will involve very different methods, resources, actors and, ultimately, a very different political scene: India is the main partner involved here, but account must also be taken of China and Russia, not to mention Iran, and even a country such as Saudi Arabia, politically very close to Islamabad.
The Obama Administration deserves credit for having understood this shift in the issues involved, reflected in the coining of the new term ‘AfPak’. However, Europe cannot remain absent from this Great Game: the resources applied and the sacrifices made over the past seven years should earn it the right to continue to play an active part, both in the eyes of our major US partner and in the eyes of our own people. Without awaiting the appointment of the future High Representative of the Union, the main EU countries that contribute troops to the NATO force could establish a high-level ‘contact group’ in order to ensure a major European presence in this important arena.
The reason for the war in Afghanistan was to destroy the hideouts of al-Qaeda, with the hope of building a modern Afghan state. The first objective has been achieved, although the hydra has grown new heads elsewhere; the second objective seems, unfortunately, unattainable. The war will end as a component, or by-product, of a regional peace agreement for South and Central Asia. The time has come to draw all the necessary military and political conclusions.
Alain Lamassoure, 28 August 2009